Another year without a Canes first-rounder: Analyst input on this UM draft class

Here’s when you will know the Miami Hurricanes are officially back: When they consistently resume producing first-round NFL Draft picks every year and multiple first-round selections many years.

This week’s NFL Draft likely will mark the sixth time in the past seven years that Miami won’t have a player chosen in the first round.

The Canes had two first-rounders in 2021 (Jaelan Phillips and Greg Rousseau). But excluding that year, Miami’s draft history since 2018 is spotty.

Its highest picks in the other drafts were:

▪ Defensive end Chad Thomas: third round, 67th overall in 2018.

▪ Safety Sheldrick Redwine: fourth round, 119th in 2019.

▪ Linebacker Shaquille Quarterman: fourth round, 140th in 2020.

▪ Defensive tackle Jonathan Ford: seventh round, 234th in 2022.

▪ Cornerback Tyrique Stevenson: (second round, 56th) last April. Tight end Will Mallory (fifth round) and cornerback DJ Ivey (seventh round) were the only other two Hurricanes drafted last April.

This year, safety Kamren Kinchens is projected for the third round, but Miami’s other picks have all been projected by draft evaluators as third-day picks: safety James Williams (who likely will converted to linebacker in the NFL), defensive tackle Leonard Taylor III, center Matt Lee and guard Javion Cohen.

Several others — including defensive backs Te’Cory Couch and Jaden Davis, defensive lineman Branson Deen and linebackers KJ Cloyd and Keontra Smith — could sign with teams after the draft.

The problem with this year’s crop of Canes, according to ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr., is that they generally haven’t helped their stock since the season ended.

Kinchens hurt his stock by running poorly in the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. Kiper said Taylor’s tape didn’t measure up to his perceived ability.

Here’s how NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein, who does excellent work assessing draft-eligible players, evaluates the Canes’ top five prospects:

▪ Kinchens: Zierlein said he has “the toughness, instincts and ball skills to handle NFL work, although his lack of speed could give teams pause. Kinchens is a willing run supporter near the box and plays with outstanding range as a high safety.

“Despite the positive tape and attributes at his disposal, he made mistakes in run support and coverage that led to big plays and, in some cases, touchdowns. If he can eliminate the mental mistakes and take better angles to the ball as an open-field tackler, he will improve his consistency. But Kinchens’ poor speed testing at the NFL Scouting Combine could limit how teams will want to use him.”

Though Kinchens had 11 interceptions during the past two seasons, he allowed a 118 passer rating in his coverage area last season. Several mock drafts have him as a third-round pick.

▪ Taylor: Zierlein calls him a “feast-or-famine interior lineman who came into Miami as a highly touted recruit but leaves on the heels of a relatively disappointing junior season. Taylor’s physical tools and athletic ability stand out, but his technique and fundamentals need work. A lack of body control sees him knocked off balance or to the ground too often.

“When he’s right with his hands and feet, he can beat blockers in front of him as his power and natural talent shine through. If he doesn’t win early with the rush, he probably won’t get home, but there is potential improvement in that department. Taylor’s tape has too many ups and downs, and he will need to find much better consistency to reach his potential.”

According to a league source, several teams have asked how much he loves the game — and that’s a question that has surprised his camp because they don’t know where it’s coming from.

▪ Williams: Zierlein says he’s a “physical safety with a long, athletic frame. While it’s fun watching him run and strike from high safety, it is much less fun watching his coverage confusion.

“He doesn’t see the game as clearly as teams might like right now, but he has the athleticism and cover skills to tighten up the windows on tight ends in man coverage. Williams might need a year to add weight and keep working on his game, but his traits and playing demeanor should earn him a role as a box safety or nickel linebacker.

According to a source, several teams have told Williams they view him as an outside linebacker. At least two teams have conveyed they see him as a potential inside or outside linebacker. Others view him as a chess piece who could play outside linebacker and some safety.”

▪ Lee: He graded out as one of the nation’s best centers over the past two seasons, at UCF in 2022 and UM in 2023. He allowed no sacks either season and permitted just four pressures in 434 pass-blocking snaps in 2023, per Pro Football Focus.

Zierlein said “Lee’s lack of mass and NFL size will be a stumbling block from a perception standpoint, but the tape doesn’t lie when it comes to his talent in pass protection. Lee is a technician with good play strength whose anchor supersedes the number on the scale.

“He keeps his head on a swivel and was rarely beaten in 2023. Lee is an average athlete with above-average core strength and protection technique, and he might be able to overcome concerns about his size once he makes it into a camp.”

▪ Cohen: Kiper projects Lee and Cohen as potential fifth-round picks.

Zierlein said Cohen “played heavier in 2023, adding a little more strength while sacrificing a little too much athleticism. He’s a big man with long arms but might need to drop down in weight, as he played with much better body control and range in 2022 with Alabama.... Cohen’s limitations cap his upside, but he has a chance to become a good backup or eventual starter if he can recapture better athleticism.”

It’s notable that UM hasn’t had an offensive player selected in the first three rounds of the draft since tight end David Njoku was chosen 29th overall by Cleveland in 2017.

The last time UM had two first-rounders on offense in the same draft? That would be 2015, when offensive lineman Ereck Flowers went ninth and receiver Phillip Dorsett 29th.